Count me cofounded by the Memphis Grizzlies. They have road wins over the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz and bad losses to the New Orleans Pelicans and the Minnesota Timberwolves. After having the seventh best defense last season, the Grizzlies rank dead last 18 games into the current season. They are giving up 116.6 points per 100, 5 points worse than last season.
The Grizzlies have had some bad luck when it comes to opponent three point shooting. Opponents have shot nearly 42% from three, 7 points over league average. Break the season into two-week windows and it’s a similar story: 44.4% in the most recent two week stretch, 40.6% in the two weeks before that, 40% in the two weeks before that. The Grizzlies have been a bottom-two team in that statistic throughout the season; no other team has been in the bottom five for more than two of those two-week cuts per Cleaning the Glass.
One might wonder if the Grizzlies are giving up a ton of uncontested looks. That doesn’t seem to be the case: 18 other teams have given up more three pointers categorized as “wide open” and 15 other teams have given up more three pointers categorized as “open” per NBA stats.1 Opponents are shooting roughly the same percentage from three regardless of how well contested the shots are, including a fiery 41% on attempts where the nearest Grizzlies defender has been within four feet of the shooter.
So the Grizzlies have copped the short end of the stick when it comes to opponent three point shooting. Still, that isn’t the only factor determining a team’s defense. After benefiting from especially cold opponent three point shooting last season, the New York Knicks have regressed closer to league average this year, yet have maintained the same defensive rating of 108.6.2
And the Grizz could be helping themselves a bit more. Even as his offense has blossomed, Ja Morant’s defense has been sub par. Opponents shoot 7.6 percentage points better from three with Morant on the floor per CTG. Individual on/off numbers are noisy (a drum I will always beat), but watch Memphis’ games and it isn’t uncommon to see Morant lose his man on the perimeter, or just die on a screen. I mean:
Morant is occasionally a beat behind the play - in the clip below, it isn’t clear that he realizes D’Angelo Russell is screening him away from Anthony Edwards on the perimeter, rather than being tagged. Morant isn’t the only offender of course; Ziaire Williams loses Edwards completely.
Those lapses are understandable and even excusable from a rookie like Williams. Less excusable is a veteran like Kyle Anderson falling asleep and letting Cody Martin screen Kelly Oubre’s man out of the play below.
Slo Mo calls out the switch there, he knows to be mindful of Martin! Cody Martin signals his intentions and points LaMelo Ball towards the Oubre pass. Memphis has to notice those actions and communicate more as a team.
Some of the defensive lapses come down to fighting over screens more, some of them come down to knowing opposing personnel, and some are a combination of both. Why is Desmond Bane going under this screen (of questionable legality, granted) from Karl-Anthony Towns for Russell?
Memphis has a top ten offense and that seems sustainable. Maybe with opponent shooting regressing a bit, and a mite more defensive effort, they can get above the play-in muck.
“Wide open” = the nearest defender is 6+ feet away; “Open” = the nearest defender is 4-6 feet away.
The tenth best defense this year after the same mark put them top five last season when offenses were off the charts.