Every NBA season, a handful of players make “the leap”, going from role player to star, or star to superstar. There isn’t a clear definition of what constitutes the leap, but it’s one of those knowing-it-when-you-see-it things. It’s early in the season, but Ja Morant appears to have blasted off.
When evaluating a player’s progress, particularly those making star turns, I like to look at their efficiency vis a vis level of involvement in the game on offense.1 Has a high-usage player managed to increase his efficiency on the intensive margin? Has a budding star increased his usage without sacrificing efficiency?
Usage rate is a standard indicator for a player’s offense involvement/usage, calculating the proportion of a team’s plays that a player was involved with while on the floor that end up in a shot attempt or turnover. Here is how Ben Falk describes usage:
A player's usage rate attempts to measure how much of a team's offense the player is responsible for. This isn't necessarily a good or bad thing — that depends on whether the player is using that offense efficiently (more on that in a second). But it does give you a sense of how much offensive responsibility the player is shouldering. A player with a very low usage is not creating much on offense (they are more of a role player), while a player with a very high usage is an offensive focal point.
One can also think of the make-up of a player’s usage rate; for instance, what proportion of a player’s shot attempts are self-created vs. assisted, number of pull-up jumpers, etc.
On the efficiency front, one could look at a player’s shooting efficiency, how often they turn the ball over, the turnover-to-passes made tradeoff, and so on.
With that brief framing, let’s take a look at Ja Morant. Through six games so far this season, he has maintained a star-level usage rate of 35%, in the 94th percentile for point guards league-wide per Cleaning the Glass. That figure would have placed him behind only Trae Young last season. Morant’s usage has spiked nearly 15% since last season.
Morant has married this increase in usage with a large uptick in efficiency. He is scoring 1.26 points per shot attempt, up from 1.07 the previous season, and in the 97th percentile for all point guards per CTG.2 Morant turns the ball over on 17% of his possessions, a slight increase from last season and a number that the Grizzlies would like to see go down. However, that number isn’t wholly unreasonable for a young player taking on a larger role in the offense and one that I would bet on stabilizing as Morant establishes more comfort with his large role.
The remarkable part of Morant’s jump in scoring efficiency is that it has come from improvements across the board. He is shooting better from nearly everywhere (previous season’s numbers in parentheses): 65% (61%) at the rim, 57% (39%) from midrange, and 40% (31%) from three. That last figure is most notable; opponents were happy to go under screens on Morant last season. That is already starting to change.
I am not an expert on shooting mechanics, but based on outcomes alone, Morant appears to be more comfortable with his jump shot. And that’s true regardless of where he gets those jump shots: he is shooting a 60% eFG% on catch-and-shoot jumpers (up from 42.5% last season) and 55.2% on pull-up jumpers per NBA Advanced Stats. Both numbers place Morant in elite territory.
Morant has used the respect engendered by his improved jumper to kick his explosive driving game into gear. With Andrew Wiggins leaning in anticipation of having to fight over Steven Adams’ screen, Morant is quick to reject the screen and dribble into a short mid-ranger:
Notice Kevon Looney (white headband) in the clip above walling off the rim, with both feet well outside the restricted area, and Draymond Green ready as a second line of defense behind him.
That’s a mark of how much opponents respect Morant’s rim finishing; 45% of Morant’s shots come at the rim (in the 100th percentile for all point guards per CTG), and he finishes a healthy 65% of those attempts. Arrive late with the help, or stay too deep, and that mid ranger becomes a layup; Steph Curry is early pointing Damion Lee to his help responsibility below, but Lee arrives too deep and Morant finishes with the reverse:
Whether or not the outside shot engenders opponent respect, Morant is quick enough to find his way into the lane. If that short mid-ranger (54% so far this season!) is anywhere close to real, he will have a handy counter to teams comfortable with chasing him into the lane and protecting the rim.
Possessing a short jumper is one thing, but recognizing when to pull that out versus forcing a drive speaks to Morant’s advanced feel for the game. To watch him in action is to see an algorithm being rapidly processed: Do I have a mismatch that calls for an isolation (poor Otto Porter above)? Is my opponent overplaying me, giving me a driving lane? Is the help in good enough position where I should pull up, or can I take it all the way to the hoop?
Morant is quick to grab low hanging fruit when presented with it. Twice against the Miami Heat’s 2-3 zone, he found himself with an isolation mismatch. Quick pitch-backs in both cases allowed him to generate a head of steam and roast his man (PJ Tucker in one instance, Max Strus in the other) straight to the rim.
Morant is no ball hog; he assists on 40% of his teammates’ made shots per CTG. Again, it isn’t just that he generates shots for his teammates, but how he does them. A crafty look off gets Damian Lillard completely committed off of Desmond Bane in the corner, opening a wide open look at three.3
Later in the same game, Morant recognizes Robert Covington in position to intercept a skip pass to Bane in the corner, and quickly finds Jaren Jackson Jr. relocating to the top of the arc for 3 instead.
Morant has the razzle dazzle; observe his game-winning move on Andrew Wiggins at the top of this post, or any number of his violent dunks. It’s everything in-between that has me especially convinced that he is making the leap, even though we are only six games into the season. He has refined his tools (see the jumper and passing) and is simultaneously deploying them optimally.
A word on Taylor Jenkins
The Grizzlies are a top ten offense in the early going thanks to Ja Morant, but let’s give Coach Taylor Jenkins some credit. The Grizz run a varied set of plays to get their players involved in different ways. Take Bane for instance; he isn’t simply relegated to the PJ Tucker role of spotting up in the corner. Here, they spring Bane open for a wing three with a cleverly disguised Spain/Stack pick and roll:
It isn’t every day that Kyle Lowry gets turned around on defense.
Or in an action reminiscent of the Phoenix Suns’ Elbow sets, they get Bane the ball on the move for a drive to the hoop:
A personal favorite is the distinct flavor of double drag that the Grizzlies run, with the second screener closer to the basket than I am typically used to seeing.
The set places the roll man (usually the second screener the way the Grizzlies run it) that much closer to the basket. Any miscalculation by the defense with regards to coverage or help, and Morant finds his man directly underneath the rim. Those miscalculations can be helped along; for instance, the first screener (Jaren Jackson Jr.) below flattens out his screen, allowing Morant to effectively reject the first screen in double drag. That pulls the second screener’s (Steven Adams) man, Kevon Looney, sufficiently out of position to help on Morant’s drive and create an open lane for Adams to rumble to the rim.
These guys are fun.
In general, I’m only looking at offense here. Players can certainly make defensive leaps and establish bonafide defensive star credentials, but those are much harder to capture with individual defensive metrics imho.
By way of reference, that number is right in line with James Harden’s Moreyball Houston seasons. Steph Curry averaged 1.3 in his first MVP season and 1.36 in the follow-up unanimous MVP season. There isn’t enough recognition for just how mould-breaking Steph is.
One of my favorite things to watch during Grizzlies games is panicked defenders scrambling out to Bane in the corner, Bane shot-faking them into blowing by him into the stands, and then calmly sinking the shot. This happens at least a couple of times every game. I don’t really blame CJ McCollum and his fellow victims; after shooting 47% from the corners last season, Bane is shooting 50% through six games this year.