There are rules to luck, not everything is chance for the wise; luck can be helped by skill.
- Balthasar Gracian
On May 28, 2018, the Houston Rockets infamously missed 27 straight three point attempts in the process of squandering a 15-point halftime lead and losing Game 7 of the Western Conference finals to the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors, of course, went on to win their second straight championship by sweeping Lebron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers in the finals. Even as we marveled at Houston’s improbable cold streak, there was a collective acknowledgment that the skill of the Warriors had put them in a position to benefit from the Rockets’ shooting slump.
Sometimes things go the other way; good teams are able to ride out good fortune for long enough to find their groove and let their skill carry them home. Onward to Game 1 of the 2022 Western Conference Finals then.
The Dallas Mavericks might have felt unlucky heading into halftime with a nine point deficit on Wednesday. The Warriors shot improbably well on long 2s; on the night, Golden State shot 75% on long 2s, many of them contested. Golden State seemed to stay afloat in the first half on a parade of bailout pull up 2s. Spare a thought for Dallas’ defense, on a string throughout the possession below, for giving up two points at the end of it. Jalen Brunson forces Klay Thompson off the three point line, followed by Frank Ntilikina walling the rim off. Dwight Powell (Mavericks number 7) helps in on Ntilikina’s man, Kevon Looney, before closing out perfectly on his original assignment Otto Porter. The Warriors get lucky to escape with a bucket on Porter’s fadeaway.
Even more deflating must have been the banked jumper below. Again, the Mavericks defend this well, with Maxi Kleber’s (Mavericks number 42) repeated help defense efforts especially worthy of praise. And it still shows up as two points for Golden State in the box score:
Both of those shots came with under five seconds left on the shot clock. Here’s another one for good measure, from Kevon Looney (shooting 24% on long 2s this season per Cleaning the Glass.) Is there a better outcome process-wise that the Mavericks defense could be aiming for?
To make the Warriors’ good fortune worse for the Mavericks, Dallas was extraordinarily unlucky on the offensive end. The Mavericks went just 11 for 48 from 3, but what was notable was how many good looks didn’t go down. Per NBA Advanced Stats, Dallas shot just 29% on 28 three point attempts classified as wide open.
One possession emblematic of Dallas’ struggles saw them miss three wide open catch and shoot looks on a single possession:
The glass half full perspective if you’re Dallas is that they won’t shoot this poorly on good looks. And Golden State won’t be the 2021-2022 Phoenix Suns on long 2s forever (just ask…the 2021-2022 Phoenix Suns, still figuring out what went wrong in the last round).1 And 18 transition points by Golden State notwithstanding, Dallas’ transition defense held up against Golden State despite bricky shooting. Dallas had the best transition defense in the league after the Kristaps Porzingis trade per Cleaning the Glass; that will be a source of strength for them in this series
Give Golden State enough lucky breaks and they find a way to capitalize. It isn’t a deep insight, but surviving unlucky breaks is tougher against a good team than a bad one. The room for error is that much smaller.
Warriors fans were thrilled to see the game-busting third quarter runs return this season. Those third quarters were a hallmark of the dynasty-era Warriors, as detailed by Baxter Holmes in 2018.
"The third-quarter [runs]," Curry says, "are just the product of us wearing on teams over the course for 48 minutes."
Kerr says…"I think teams are excited to play us, and they come out on fire defensively, and it takes a lot out of them…In the third quarter, teams tend to tire a little bit, and maybe that's why we make a push."
A lot of credit must go to Steve Kerr and his coaching staff, but Golden State has also prized high IQ veterans during this era, banking on their ability to devise and implement real-time adjustments. Even the best defenses wear down or get demoralized over time and start to make mistakes. When they do, the Warriors are primed to capitalize. Golden State stretched its lead to 17 early in the third quarter after forcing a couple of Dallas turnovers. And then the Warriors’ blender started picking at the seams of Dallas’ defense.
To beat the Warriors, a defense has to guard Golden State’s off ball guard-guard actions well. Here, the Mavericks get the Warriors bogged down late in the shot clock, but Reggie Bullock loses track of his man Steph Curry for a beat and in scrambling to get back on him, fails to execute a switch with Dorian Finney-Smith. The result: Klay Thompson gets an easy layup out of a possession that was going nowhere.
Watch that clip again and see how Jalen Brunson, guarding Draymond Green at the top of the key, sinks way in as a second line of defense on Andrew Wiggins behind Luka Doncic. Good defense by Brunson one would think; the ball isn’t in Draymond’s hands, Draymond isn’t a catch-and-shoot threat one pass away, Luka could use the help, and Brunson is careful to box Draymond out on his cut to the rim.
A couple of possessions later, the Warriors leverage Dallas’ scheme to get Klay another good look. With Brunson again playing off of him, Draymond passes the ball off to Wiggins and Brunson shades towards the nail behind Luka. The play turns out to not be an iso for Wiggins though; Draymond pivots straight into a pin down for Klay curling to the top of the arc. With Brunson nowhere in the vicinity to help, Draymond doesn’t even have to make contact on his screen.
Golden State finds a way to put an opponent’s worst defender through dynamic actions.2 It’s hard to help a teammate with a target on his back when one has to be aware of the action everywhere else on the floor as well.
Watch this possession: The Warriors dial up a high pick and roll for Steph to get Davis Bertans switched onto him. Bertans shows enough to allow Dorian Finney-Smith to get back onto Steph and Bertans to stay with Otto Porter. Crisis averted…until Steph triggers a ping-ping-ping passing sequence. Bertans falls asleep and gives Porter a window to cut to the basket for another open layup.
Layups and wide open looks rely less on good luck. Once fault lines open up in a defense, Golden State is primed to take advantage.
Luka Doncic might have surmounted LeBron James as the most terrifying opponent in a seven game series. There are no good answers for him and I have no doubt that with some shooting luck and Doncic’s ability to solve any defense, the Mavericks will make this a long series. I picked the Warriors in 7 going in and despite the margin in Game 1, think the series is close to a toss-up. A couple of things I think Dallas could change in Game 2:
Not having Brunson sag off of Green, or mix up the coverage depending on whether Green is on or off ball.
Minimizing the Luka step-back three when he has Kevon Looney on an island. That isn’t a bad shot for Luka, except for potentially every other shot. Luka is so good at creating quality looks for his teammates (the Mavericks score 1.15 points per possession with Luka on the floor per CTG) that the step-back may be fool’s gold that the Warriors let the Mavericks have.
This may not be a Dwight Powell series. Start Maxi Kleber at the 5 and see what happens. The Kleber-Bullock-DFS-Luka-Brunson lineup has held up well on defense and is due a heater from 3.
The Mavericks also shot 75% on long 2s, but they took a lot less of them than Golden State. So while both teams nominally benefited from some fluky hot shooting there, the Warriors relied on it a lot more in building their lead.
A Golden State-Boston finals is enticing, amongst other reasons, because Boston’s best lineups don’t have a weak defensive link.