As the Dallas Mavericks were putting together a historically great offensive season last year, the Inside the NBA crew criticized them for not posting up Kristaps Porzingis more. Coach Rick Carlisle pushed back on this, and with good reason; Porzingis was scoring 0.81 points per possession on post ups last season per NBA advanced stats. Simply put, the Mavericks had more efficient offensive options available.
Seth Partnow had this to say in the context of that:
Partnow highlights one of the key points of tension/sources of confusion in these arguments: the equation of rim attempts with post ups, and its corollary, viewing the rise of the 3-pointer as having come at the expense of shots at the rim.
Partnow has written extensively about what attempts have been lost with the rise of the three-pointer (tl;dr: long twos and bad twos.)
With that as a preamble, I want to look at how the Dallas Mavericks are generating rim attempts for Kristaps Porzingis.1 First, a small detour back to post ups: Per NBA advanced stats, Porzingis is posting up with more frequency this season and while his scoring on those post ups has ticked up to a respectable 1.01 points per possession, it’s the diversity in those post ups that is more intriguing. Porzingis is passing more frequently out of post ups and generating more assists. He leverages mismatches down low and at the elbow to generate open looks for teammates.
Often that involves making the simple read to an open shooter when the defense sends his man to dig in on Porzingis. Porzingis is also starting to find cutters before the defense fully commits to the double, recognizing holes as soon as they open up.
Taking the broad view, Porzingis is incorporating playmaking more into his post ups; even as his post up touches have increased, the percentage of Porzingis’ shots that come at the rim this season (28%) are roughly in line with his career numbers per Cleaning the Glass.
Unlike many of the league’s post up monsters, a large proportion of Porzingis’ makes at the rim are assisted; over 70%. Contrast that with say Joel Embiid (40%), Karl-Anthony Towns (52%), or even Giannis Antetokounmpo (47%) who averages around the same points per possession scoring out of post ups as Porzingis does. While this has always been the case for Porzingis, his accuracy at the rim has ticked up this season: He is averaging a career-high 74% on shot attempts at the rim, a 9% increase on last season and at a robust 79th percentile for his position. That’s Lebron James territory. Granted, Porzingis attempts a smaller proportion of his shots at the rim than any of the stalwarts mentioned above, but the looks he is getting are more efficient.
Porzingis gets many of those quality rim looks thanks to Luka Doncic’s expert quarterbacking of the Dallas offense. The Mavericks dissected the Indiana Pacers with a flurry of 1-5 pick and rolls in their January 20th game. While I don’t have the numbers for Porzingis as the roll man on PNRs with Doncic specifically, he is shooting 65% on two-point field goals off of passes from Doncic per NBA advanced stats, and scoring 1.18 points per possession as the roll man in pick and rolls.
More interesting are the other sets that the Mavericks run to get Porzingis moving towards the rim. They run an inverted version of the traditional big-pin down-for a wing/guard; here’s an example with Jalen Brunson setting the wide pin down.
Depending on how the defense plays him, Porzingis either pops out to the wing, or curls off the pin down into a running layup. He also recognizes when the defense overplays him on this, opening up the layup off a baseline cut to the basket instead.
A juicy Horns set from the same Spurs game involved two fake handoffs to scramble the defense, something that could prove especially effective against defenses that are only partway committed to switching:
After the initial cut from Luka, both Demar DeRozan (Spurs 10) and Rudy Gay go with Josh Richardson (Mavs 0), allowing Porzingis to fake the handoff and drive into the paint with momentum.
Another favorite involves using Luka’s gravity to draw Porzingis’ man away and open up the lane.
The Spurs dodge a bullet there after both DeJounte Murray (Spurs 5) and Keldon Johnson (Spurs 3) stick with Luka, thanks to Jakob Poeltl’s timely rotation.
Going forward, I am interested to see how the Mavericks continue experimenting with getting Porzingis the ball with momentum towards the rim. For instance, one could imagine the following play run with Porzingis in Maxi Kleber’s place (or perhaps with Kleber even playing Willie Cauley-Stein’s screening role):
Trey Burke’s (Mavs 3) cut through the lane is perfectly timed with Cauley Stein’s back screen for Kleber, putting Patty Mills between a rock and a hard place; to help on Kleber and leave Burke open for an open corner 3 on the strong side, or stick with Burke. Even Jalen Brunson’s slow amble up the court serves the purpose of keeping Derrick White at the top of the arc out of the play.
(Side bar: the Mavs nearly always have a fun set coming out of a break or timeout; the last two clips were at the start of the second and third quarters.)
The other way in which Porzingis is generating high quality rim attempts is through well-timed cuts. Per NBA advanced stats, Porzingis has nearly doubled the frequency with which he cuts from last season. Luka Doncic can throw defenses into a panic when he drives, and Porzingis has started taking advantage.
John Collins commits to helping in the paint early, and Porzingis cuts as soon as that lane opens up.
Porzingis’ timing on these cuts is getting sophisticated. Here, as soon as Poeltl shows help at the nail, Porzingis cuts behind him.
That Poeltl is still able to recover (albeit while committing a foul) is a testament to how narrow the window for the cut is there; delay by even a split second and that advantage disappears.
There is still room for improvement and at times, Porzingis might still languish outside the arc as a nominal spacer when a cut could have opened up something intriguing.
If you are the Mavs, you want to see Porzingis cutting behind Rudy Gay there to open up another option for Maxi Kleber.
On the whole though, there is something intriguing brewing with Kristaps Porzingis in Dallas. Trade rumors and defensive issues notwithstanding, what this proves to be could go a long way towards determining if the current iteration of the Mavericks can ascend into the tier of legitimate contenders.
A word on Patty Mills
Death, taxes, and Patty Mills continuing to be a solid bench player. Spurs games are worth tuning into for the Mills-Poeltl two-man game alone. Mills doesn’t just get his points through found money; the Spurs use his shifty speed in fun ways. Watch them fake a double-drag below, with Mills slipping the first screen towards the rim, then doing an abrupt u-turn towards Poeltl’s pin down.
Poor Jalen Brunson goes crashing through Poeltl like the Kool Aid Man and it still isn’t enough. I have a special place in my heart for Patty.
In its short existence to date, this is the second time From The Logo has dwelled at length on Porzingis. I think Porzingis is one of the more important swing players in the league in much the same way that Zach Lowe writes about Brandon Ingram. Says Lowe: “If he becomes the player he thinks he can be -- a two-way superstar who approaches double digits in assists -- the Pelicans have a chance to contend for titles around Ingram and Zion Williamson.” Luka Doncic is every bit the generational superstar that Zion is (and further along in his development at this point.) As with Zion and the Pelicans, much of Luka and the Mavs’ ceiling will be determined by where Porzingis lies on the superstar continuum.