The Boiling Frog Lineup
At some point they're not going to be able to score, right?
Our AI overlords describe the boiling frog as “a metaphor, often used to illustrate how people can fail to react to or be aware of gradual threats that become dangerous over time, because they don't perceive the danger until it's too late.”1 The Golden State Warriors may have stealthily found a lineup combination that the league is sleeping on: variations that include the four man combo of Gary Payton II, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler III, and Moses Moody. That four man combo (with either Steph Curry or Quinten Post for the most part) is blitzing opponents to the tune of +34 points per 100 possessions per Cleaning the Glass.
Let’s get the caveats out of the way: The sample size is still small, just 90 possessions. And GP2 has been shooting gangbusters from three-point range since the Butler trade; after shooting 22% from three pre-trade, GP2 has hit 50% of his outside shots in the 16 games since. There is some regression coming there. Nevertheless, the fact that those lineups are scoring 131 points per 100 (one of the best marks for any lineup in the league and 8 points/100 better than Cleveland’s league-leading offense) is impressive.
It’s especially impressive when you consider the obvious issue with those lineups: No matter who is slotted into that fifth spot (and the fact that it has largely been Post, a stretch 5, or Steph, the GOAT shooter, should tell us something), that’s three abysmal shooters in Draymond, Butler, and GP2 sharing the floor. So how are they making it work on offense? Given the presence of Butler, an elite free throw grifter magnet, it shouldn’t be surprising that they have an elite free throw rate. The Moody-Draymond-Butler-GP2 lineups make 35 free throws per 100 possessions. You would be hard pressed to find a better mark in the league. That’s a lot of extra points.
Read the names in that lineup again. That’s three All Defense caliber players in Draymond, Butler, and GP2.2 Draymond is capable of guarding anyone and everyone, Butler lurks as a weak side safety, and GP2 is capable of staying attached to apex guards. Meanwhile, Moody has quietly turned into one of Golden State’s best screen navigators and point of attack defenders. Watch the Warriors defend on a screen below.
Draymond is so good at getting back on his man, Giannis, that Jonathan Kuminga’s help in the lane likely isn’t even needed there (especially with GP2 recovering in time to bother any pass.)
All of which translates into that four man lineup forcing turnovers on 23% of opponent possessions. Nearly one in four possessions ends with the Warriors getting the ball back without having surrendered a shot attempt. That’s six percentage points more than the league-leading Oklahoma City turnover forcing machine.
And turnovers lead to leakouts, fast breaks, and more transition opportunities. Getting out in transition before the opposing team’s defense gets set is another way to manufacture points. Per Cleaning the Glass again, those four man lineups add 4 points per 100 possessions in transition, in the 87th percentile of all lineups. Watch how quickly the Warriors go from coming away with the steal to putting the ball in the hoop.
Those lineups have an unsustainably hot half court offense as well, largely due to their outside shooting. Again, that is going to tail off. I don’t anticipate these being high usage lineups; they will be small when Steph is in the fifth spot, and not have enough offensive juice otherwise. But the defense is real and in high energy bursts, could really turn off the other team’s tap. As Golden State makes a serious late season bid for a strong playoff run, this is one to keep an eye on.
That’s actually pretty good.
Draymond’s defense on Giannis Antetokounmpo on Tuesday is worth rewatching. Has anyone played Giannis better this season?