With 7:32 to go in Game 4 of the NBA Finals, Marcus Smart hit a free throw to put the Boston Celtics up 91-86 over the Golden State Warriors. At that point, it felt like the Warriors were barreling towards a 1-3 series deficit. Golden State subsequently went 21-6 over the remained of the game to steal Game 4 and head back to San Francisco with the series knotted.
Thus far, Game 4 postmortems have largely dwelled on Steph Curry’s transcendental performance and Boston’s late-game offensive drought. That was an all-time Steph game, one that we were privileged to witness. It may be his playoff Mona Lisa, the performance we point to in trying to describe the Steph phenomenon years from now. Just track him through this entire possession:
That’s four Celtics who guard Steph, three of whom (Al Horford, Grant Williams, and Jayson Tatum in a panicked contest) are forced to switch on to him. Somewhere in the third quarter, I mused that this was shaping up to be the type of performance that needed to end in a win. Steph willed it so.
On Boston’s offense: It does Boston some disservice to chalk up their fourth quarter drought to poor offense alone. The dry spell started with Golden State locking in its defensive rotations. It was a team-wide phenomenon. Here, Kevon Looney does well to deny Jayson Tatum the middle, but also credit Jordan Poole for rotating over early with the help. With Tatum forced to bail out, Steph is spry enough to force Tatum left and eventually into a late fadeaway that misses everything:
As much as the discourse after Game 2 was about Golden State’s switch of Draymond Green onto Jaylen Brown, I maintain that Klay Thompson’s on-ball defense has been good-to-quite-good in this series. His defensive instincts remain sharp; this great recognition to rotate over and force the tough miss by Tatum after Andrew Wiggins gets back cut:
(Side bar: That was some tasty orchestration by Tatum; watch him signal Marcus Smart to pass the ball to Robert Williams there, recognizing that the back cut opportunity should present itself with the way Wiggins is guarding him. Klay prevented a layup.)
Another solid rotation, this time from Kevon Looney, wiping out another layup that comes off a smart (pun not intended) Boston cut:
This is where we need to give the Celtics more credit than they are getting: recognizing that the Warriors were helping early, they sought to make them pay. Remember the fourth quarter in Game 1 when the Celtics shot the lights out? That could have been this game. Boston just happened to go through an unlucky stretch at a crucial time (or did not benefit from a lucky stretch like Game 1, depending on how one looks at it). This is a good look for Brown, coming off a Tatum flare screen.
One of the questions I had coming into this series was whether Boston could play advantage instead of mismatch basketball. They certainly tried in that fourth quarter spell. Brown generates a good, quick look for Tatum here when Tatum’s man shades in with the help. Tatum just misses the shot.
These are also good looks generated by Brown, catching Draymond Green and Kevon Looney over-helping. Marcus Smart and Al Horford were sinking these shots in Game 1, but couldn’t outrun the law of averages this time.
Look at the score in those clips; that’s three open looks to tie up the game. Sometimes skill catches up to luck and at other times, luck catches up to skill. The Warriors defense did its job in Game 4 with tight rotations, but they were helped by some Celtic shooting more in line with their long-term averages.
The Warriors defense wasn’t the only tight operation in Game 4; Boston held Golden State to a measly 83.9 offensive rating in the half-court per Cleaning the Glass. So how did Golden State manage 107 points and an offensive rating of 112.6 (paltry against anyone else, impressive against Boston)? Two answers: Celtics turnovers and Warriors offensive rebounds. Well, three answers if you include “Stephen Curry”. Moving on…
Boston’s turnover issue has been well chronicled. The Celtics are well nigh unbeatable when they turn the ball over fewer than 15 times in a game, mostly a testament to their defense and Boston’s ability to squeak out any victory if they win the possession battle. The Celtics had 15 turnovers in Game 4, many of the live ball variety and the Warriors ran like Seabiscuit off of those. Cleaning the Glass’ “points added through transition” had Golden State adding 4.5 points/100 in transition. When you have the best half-court defense in recent memory, you shoot yourself in the foot by letting the opponent attack a non-set defense.
Nevertheless, Golden State had 16 turnovers of their own and it wasn’t like the Warriors’ transition defense fared much better. The Warriors really won the possession battle on the offensive glass, ironic considering that they lost Game 3 on the defensive glass.1 When I wondered pre-series if the Warriors could “manufacture” transition points, the deeper question was about how the Warriors could collect cheap points. Offensive rebounding was the $20 bill on the ground. Kevon Looney (56) and Andrew Wiggins (50) lead all players for offensive rebounds in these playoffs. During the regular season, Kevon Looney has rebounded nearly 14% of Warriors’ misses in the playoffs, in the 95th percentile of all big men per CTG. Andrew Wiggins has been just as impressive; I covered both players in a retrospective on the Memphis series. Golden State rebounded 37% of their own misses in Game 4 against Boston, in the 93rd percentile for all playoff games.
Let’s dwell on Wiggins for a second. The knock on Wiggins throughout his career has been that he has the tools, but lacks the will/desire. That he doesn’t want it enough. I find a lot of the discourse around heart and discourse emblematic of the worst Monday morning quarterbacking. Nevertheless, offensive rebounds seem like an outcome somewhat correlated to effort. Wiggins has been crashing the glass all through the playoffs and he had three crucial ones in Game 4. For all the talk of Boston’s advantages over Golden State in the athleticism department, Wiggins may be the most athletic player in this series. He displayed that on all three rebounds. On two, he just out-muscled Marcus Smart, a human fire hydrant.
On another, he out-worked Jaylen Brown, no fast twitch slouch.
Wiggins’ 16 rebounds and 43 minutes of defense played no small part in Golden State’s win.
An unheralded star in the Warriors’ Game 4 offensive rebounding bonanza? The much-maligned Draymond Green. Draymond had five offensive boards. While two arguably came off friendly bounces, three showed Draymond’s recognition of how the Celtics were playing him. Draymond has struggled to make an offensive impact in this series, and his defenders ignore him to play free safety for the most part. When the defender was one of the Celtics big men - Robert Williams or Al Horford - Draymond cut towards the rim to take advantage of his man going for the block or rotating early. Watch him match Al Horford step-for-step towards the rim here.
(Draymond missed the subsequent put-back; the struggle is real.)
My friend Graham texted me after this next one wondering when Draymond last had a put-back dunk. I can’t remember, but this is a smart way to turn Rob Williams’ rim protection against him:
One more for good measure, again with Rob Williams ignoring Draymond Green to pester Andrew Wiggins on the drive:
Here’s something interesting: Opponents rebounded 1.5 percentage points more of their misses with Rob Williams on the floor this season per CTG. Single-big lineups with Williams on the floor and Horford off allowed opponents to rebound nearly a third of their own misses over 2080 possessions, in the 9th percentile of all lineups. I imagine the deterrence effect added to the denied baskets work out to a net advantage for the Celtics, but there is a cost to Williams’ block-hunting. The Warriors made that cost count when it mattered.
IT’S LIKE RAIIIEEEAIN, ON YOUR WEDDING DAY, IT’S A FREE RIIIEEEIDE, WHEN YOU’VE ALREADY PAID!