The Nets are in a world of trouble, fighting to make the play-in, but Wednesday night’s 28 point comeback at Madison Square Garden brought some much needed cheer. If there are two numbers that capture how the beleaguered Nets were able to shut the door on the Knicks, let it be these ones: 52% and 46.8%.
52% is rookie Cam Thomas’ accuracy on long mid-rangers, placing him in the 94th percentile of all wings per Cleaning the Glass. Thomas isn’t gun shy; over a quarter of his attempts are long mid-rangers, in the 100th percentile in the Year of our Lord Threes and Dunks.
46.8% is Thomas’s accuracy on pull-up jumpers per Second Spectrum data. The only players ahead of Thomas: Jrue Holiday, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Seth Curry, and of course, DeMar DeRozan.1
Let’s go to the film: With a little over five minutes to go, the Nets had crawled within five after being down by as much as 28 points. Thomas runs a high pick and roll with LaMarcus Aldridge. With Mitchell Robinson in his standard drop, Thomas gets to his spot at the right elbow and pulls up for two.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it: Two possessions later, the Nets again dial up a Thomas-Aldridge pick and roll. With Robinson in the drop again, Thomas finds the space to pull up, with the same result.
Not surprisingly, the Nets run the same play the next trip down. Thomas and Aldridge botch the timing (notice Thomas about to accelerate around the pick before aborting when he realizes that he is a step too far to generate any advantage), but credit Thomas for staying patient. He waits for the re-screen and then gets to his spot again, impressive poise from a 20-year old rookie.
Tired of getting burned over and over, Robinson plays up higher the next time Thomas and Aldridge run a pick and roll. Thomas is quick to recognize this and instead of settling for a contested pull-up, he gets a step on Robinson and drives for the layup. Robinson does well to recover for the block (although nobody puts a body on Aldridge, resulting in the Nets getting two anyway), but Thomas’ read of the subtle shift in coverage sticks out to me.
He is already a handy scorer with a deep bag, but Thomas has room for growth. Following the play above, the Knicks had Robinson play at the level and then double Thomas on a couple of pick and rolls. On both plays, Thomas looked for Aldridge on the short roll as an outlet. When that option was taken away, Thomas seemed less certain, settling for a contested step-back three:
Quentin Grimes gets his arms in Thomas’ sight line after fighting over the screen, making a pass to Aldridge risky. However, with Evan Fournier pulled way in off the strong side corner, Thomas has Patty Mills open in the corner there. As Thomas matures, one would hope that he is able to make that read.
Then again, a step-back three is exactly the shot that Thomas used to seal the game a minute later.
Give Steve Nash and his coaching staff some credit there. Notice that the Nets are in a 1-4 alignment, with all four players other than Thomas spread out along the baseline. Teams run that for the best isolation scorers, the idea being that help defenders are occupied a long way off.
If I had to guess, the Nets were betting on Thomas beating his man off the dribble and getting to a fairly open mid-range pull up. Of course, an additional advantage with 1-4 is that the other defenders need to cover more ground to put in a trap late in the shot clock, so it leaves open the pull-up three as a safety valve. Thomas is shooting just 26% on pull-up threes, so the Nets can count themselves somewhat lucky. Still, they put themselves in a position to get lucky.
On a night when Midrange God DeMar DeRozan broke Wilt Chamberlain’s record for the longest streak of games with 35+ points on 50+% shooting, the Nets showed that they know their personnel. 3>2 and long mid rangers may be the least efficient shots in the NBA in theory. For a player like Cam Thomas though, those are good shots, especially when weighed up against the next best option. Come the playoffs, the ability to create and make those mid-range looks can be valuable as opponents seek to take away higher efficiency looks. Things may look bleak at Flatbush and Atlantic right now, but there are some intriguing signs for optimism.
Bing bong, in the mid-range we trust.
Minimum of 4 attempts per game.