After dropping a key matchup against the Hawks in Atlanta on Saturday, the Nets occupy the tenth seed in the East. The last play-in spot. I considered writing a “ten gifs” piece in honor of that, but there is a far, far better writer who has the ten things” space covered. The loss locked the Nets into the play-in tournament, so the best they can do now is get up to the seven seed. And their hopes largely rest on the shoulders of number 7, whose career-high 55 points were still not enough against the Hawks.
So seven gifs and numbers it is. In no particular order:
1. The defense remains a problem
Regardless of where one places the blame (injuries, Kyrie Irving’s refusal to get vaccinated, a combination of multiple factors), it remains true that the Nets have not had consistent reps or consistent lineups. Defensive trust and communication is built on a bedrock of that consistency and the Nets may be running out of time. Here, with Danilo Gallinari posting Cam Thomas up on the mismatch, James Johnson 2.9s to bring over the help when needed. Even though Kevin Durant initially helps out on Johnson’s man Onyeka Okongwu, he passes him off when Okongwu cuts into the lane…except that there is nobody there to pick Okongwu up.
My guess is that Durant should probably stick with Okongwu there, with Patty Mills zoning up on the weak side, but either way nobody seems to be on the same page. Johnson (who didn’t have his best game either) can only foul Okongwu and give up two free throws. Speaking of which…
2. You get a foul and YOU get a foul!
Since February 11th, the day the James Harden-for-Ben Simmons trade was announced, the Nets have had one of the worst opponent free throw rates in the league per Cleaning the Glass.1 The Hawks attempted 49 free throws on Saturday, 30 more than the Nets. A disparity that wide is hard to overcome, despite the Hawks barely shooting over 40% from the field. Defensive miscommunications leave players in a position where they have to foul (see: above). Other fouls are just a product of lackadaisical defense.
Yep, that’s poor James Johnson being put in a position where he has to foul. Putting him in that position is:
3. Kyrie Irving’s point of attack defense remains a problem
Readers of this space know that Irving’s rather languorous point of attack defense is a recurring theme. The fourth quarter of Saturday’s game underscored that point further; when Gallinari wasn’t getting switched onto Irving in the post, a rotating cast of Hawks guards were easily getting a step on Irving. It’s Lou Williams in the clip above, but watch how easy this is for Kevin Huerter:
Huerter is a fine player, but this isn’t Donovan Mitchell we’re talking about here. Good teams (and in the playoffs, they are all good teams) can kill a defense once they put the players in rotation. The Nets do a good job rotating on the back line here, but it is hard to maintain that level of team wide perfection. Especially not for a team that…well, see point 1 above.
4. Clean up the glass
Again using the February 11th start date, the Nets have only ranked ahead of playoff-nonentities Portland and Houston in giving up offensive rebounds to opponents per CTG. Opposing offenses rebound nearly 30% of their own misses against the Nets. The Nets half court defense has ranked 13th in the league over that period; they could be so much better if they could just clean up the defensive glass a bit more. Everything is inter-related of course; it’s plausible that the Nets’ switching defense tamps down opponent points, but trades off putting bigs out of rebounding position. I still think there is meat on the bone though. Why isn’t Andre Drummond switching the smaller Patty Mills out here before the shot even goes up?
Durant and Drummond are literally looking at the mismatch Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has under the rim! Surely a game with such high stakes merited a little more urgency.
5. Cam Thomas 🤝 Rookie Wall
I have enjoyed the Cam Thomas experience this season. He is a bucket and possesses a level of self-confidence I aspire to. Saturday was not his finest showing. On a crucial possession in the fourth quarter here, he misses a wide open James Johnson in the dunker spot.
This was where the Nets really missed Bruce Brown; he has been terrific making reads out of the short roll, invaluable when opponents blitz Kevin Durant. This play doesn’t even call for a high level read though, with Johnson right in Thomas’ line of sight.
Thomas’ assist-to-usage rate (a measure of how often a player racks up assists relative to how often they have the ball) ranks in the 15th percentile of all guards per CTG. That’s going to have to tick up if Thomas wants to be a meaningful part of the Nets rotation.
6. Get Patty Mills some rest
Between the rash of injuries suffered by Nets shooters and Kyrie Irving’s refusal to get vaccinated, Patty Mills has been taxed far more than he has thus far. He is averaging a career high in minutes per game and the fatigue has been starting to show. Since February 11th, a 29 game sample, Mills has shot just 31% from three and has an overall eFG% of 41%. The latter is one of the worst marks in the league and a steep dropoff from a player who has traditionally been a model of efficiency. Over that same period, Mills is shooting just 35% on catch and shoot threes and perhaps most concerning, just 33% on wide-open threes where the nearest defender is at least six feet away (per NBA advanced stats).
It has been painful to watch Mills struggle and even with Seth Curry in the fold, the Nets need Mills’ shooting to come around.
7. Did Kyrie Irving get too much rest?
It’s the smallest of samples, just five games, but Kyrie Irving seems to be getting his conditioning back since New York made an exemption for unvaccinated athletes and entertainers. In the five games since Irving became eligible to play in every game, he has an eFG% of 44%, including a putrid 31% on catch-and-shoot looks. One number I’ll be monitoring is Irving’s shooting on pull-up looks. The combination of Irving’s traditional prowess on pull-ups and his lethal handles is tough to stop, but over these past five games Irving has hit just 35% of his pull-up attempts. Once that comes around, plays like this Durant-Irving pick and roll could be a go-to crunch time staple.
Ahead of just Detroit and Portland, two teams trotting out very green lineups.