In case there was any doubt that this is going to be a competitive series, the Boston Celtics stormed back with a 40-16 fourth quarter mauling to take Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Golden State expressed calm/false bravado after the game, pointing to hot three point shooting from the Celtics’ non-stars as an unlucky break.
Perhaps. As an optimistic Warriors fan, one could take a glass half-full perspective on a lot of things. As a Warriors fan in the middle of a climate apocalypse/pandemic, one could also take a glass half-empty perspective.
Jayson Tatum’s Game 1
The half-empty perspective as a Warriors fan: Boston won despite a 3/17 game from its All NBA star, including 1/5 shooting from 3. If Boston managed a 129 offensive rating with Tatum barely scoring the basketball, things don’t look good for Golden State’s defense going forward. Moreover, Tatum had 13 assists and his playmaking was on point from the start. It looks like Draymond Green is late closing out here, but that is mostly a function of how good Tatum’s pass is. Off hand, in dribble, straight into Smart’s shooting pocket:
Tatum has occasionally shown a tendency to over-dribble; that wasn’t the case in Game 1. As soon as the Warriors showed a second body, Tatum would find that defender’s man.
Especially impressive was how quickly Tatum recognized where the help was coming from to immediately find the right man (“Who’s open?”) This is another pass that Tatum makes with deceptive ease:
If this is where Tatum’s playmaking is at, he has gone up a level and the Warriors have a tougher job facing them.
The half-full perspective as a Warriors fan: Tatum’s 13 assists including three 3s from Marcus Smart, one from Daniel Theis, and two 3s each from Al Horford and Derrick White. Going into the game if you told the Warriors that their defensive scheme would lead Tatum to pass the ball out to those players on the perimeter, they would have chalked it up as a process win. The Luka-lite strategy of showing hedging Tatum pick and rolls, helping in at the nail, and rotating over from the weak side may still be a reasonable process. If it keeps Tatum’s scoring output down, the Warriors may gamble on the others’ shooting regressing back. Speaking of which…
The Boston Three Party
Much of the postgame attention (including from me) went to Boston going 21/41 on 3s, including a combined 16/25 from Horford, Smart, White, and Theis. Maybe like Draymond Green, the half-full takeaway is to go “eh” and bet on the percentages evening out over the course of a seven game series. Sure, a number of Horford’s looks were wide open, but per NBA Advanced Stats, Horford only shot 35% on wide open threes in the regular season.1 That number is up to 50% in the playoffs, so he should come back to earth. And Derrick White’s baby bump is bound to slope back down eventually.
The short version of the half-empty view: Things evening out in the long run is no guarantee of them evening out over the next few games. The hot hand is real. As my friend Tariq put it, if the Celts have even one more hot shooting game, it might not matter that they come back to earth next season. As Keynes famously said, in the long run we are all dead.
Golden State could also tighten up its coverage on those shooters. Too many times in Game 1, Kevon Looney or Draymond Green didn’t even bother with a closeout. There was none of the urgency on display in the Dallas series. Per NBA Advanced Stats, Boston had six wide open threes in the fourth quarter. 42% of Boston’s shots have come from three point range in these playoffs; it might behoove the Warriors to contest more of those looks.
Moreover, if Golden State is going to load up on Tatum (and on occasion Brown), it needs to lock in back side rotations. That was something they did well against Dallas. Despite a strong shooting showing (that variance cuts both ways!), Otto Porter was a culprit on a couple of occasions in Game 1. Here, he does not properly cover Robert Williams’ roll, but still leaves deadeye shooter Payton Pritchard wide open in the corner:
I cut the clip short, but Draymond is not happy with Porter at the end of that play. Or here, Porter just falls asleep on Jaylen Brown sinking to the weak side corner, and he knows it too:
Those kinds of lapses cannot happen at this level. One would expect the Warriors to lock in by the next game.
Jaylen Brown’s Game 1
Jaylen Brown’s first finals outing was an impressive one, with a 24-7-5 line on okay-not-great 10/23 shooting. He kept the Celtics offense afloat at the start of the fourth quarter, before the Horford/White avalanche. Brown made some tough shots all through the game; whether that glass looks half-full or half-empty depends on how sustainable those efforts look. This was a fairly typical made basket:
Brown is shooting 46% on long twos this season per Cleaning the Glass, and 46% on pull-up jumpers in the playoffs per NBA Advanced Stats. Maybe that’s sustainable? How disappointed are the Warriors with a made shot coming out of this:
Pundits whose opinions I respect have suggested that the Warriors shift Draymond in Klay Thompson’s place onto Jaylen Brown in Game 2. One rationale is that it would involve Draymond in the action more and that Klay could stick to Horford on the perimeter. The Warriors will live with Horford trying to post up Klay. Possibly.
If the argument is that Klay did not cut it against Brown and that Draymond would fare better, I am less convinced. I thought Game 1 was one of Klay’s on-ball defensive showings in a while. He stonewalled a few Brown drives, including those that came off the Celtics pet empty-side handoff action.
Brown makes that shot, but you can’t fault the defense from Klay. I was impressed at how well Klay moved his feet, even when Brown built up some momentum.
Putting Draymond on Brown also reduces his ability to roam as a free safety, a role in which Draymond provides irreplaceable value to the Warriors. I think Golden State is better off not overreacting and sticking with the assignments from Game 1 (with a mite more effort closing out on Horford).
Golden State’s Offensive Malaise
Glass seriously half-empty: Even as Boston piled up 40 points in the fourth, Golden State could only muster 16 (13 if you throw out the garbage 3 from Nemanja Bjelica). Some of that was Boston making shots, with a good offense often being the best defense. Boston was able to get its half-court defense set each time it made a shot, minimizing easy run out opportunities for the Warriors.
Those possessions from the Warriors included a Draymond Green offensive foul and a barfed Draymond three at the end of the shot clock. The Warriors were unable to get into many of their actions, with the Celtics denying anything and everything. Watch Jayson Tatum switch back onto Steph after he has seemingly been screened out of the play, with Derrick White jumping out enough to buy Tatum the time he needs:
That is great defense. Boston also corrected its baffling drop coverage on Steph Curry from the first quarter and had Al Horford showing much higher on pick and rolls. The Celtics showed why they are the best defense in the NBA and there is no reason to think that won’t carry forward for the rest of this series.
And yet, I think the gloom around the Warriors’ fourth quarter offensive struggles has been overblown. As everyone has noted, the Celtics may have benefited from some shooting luck in the fourth quarter. Golden State engineered a transition opportunity on over 40% of Boston’s misses in Game 1 per Cleaning the Glass, scoring 1.4 points per play on those chances. The Warriors are primed to take advantage of any regression in Boston’s shooting.
As good as Boston’s defense is, they cannot take away everything. Golden State still got a couple of good looks in the fourth, including that Wiggins three above.2 Like this fourth quarter play, which ends in Steph missing a bunny at the rim. It looks like Klay is shaping to curl around a Draymond screen, with Jaylen Brown calling for Draymond’s defender, Derrick White, to switch onto Klay. At the last second, Klay veers right towards Steph. That sows enough confusion with the Celtics - should Steph’s defender, Smart, switch onto Klay instead? - to create an open cut for Steph to the hoop.
This Warriors core knows how to create opportunities like that over and over again. They subtly shift angles on screens and cuts to muddle up a defense.
And push comes to shove, there is always the Steph high pick and roll. Even with Horford defending the action reasonably, the Warriors created a couple of good opportunities in the fourth. On the first, Steph missed a decent look at a floater. On the second, Steph was able to create plenty of space for his step back. This isn’t a bad look for Steph Curry:
The Warriors need to find more ways to run, Boston’s half court defense is just that good. Forcing more than 12 turnovers would be nice. But the time for offensive navel gazing hasn’t quite arrived yet. Golden State put up an offensive rating of 115 in Game 1, better than Boston’s playoff-long offensive rating and nearly nine points more than what Boston has been conceding throughout these playoffs.
Defined by the NBA as threes with the nearest defender at least 6 feet away.
Wiggins’ outside shooting is a low key swing factor. If Horford is on the streak of his career, Wiggins is in a serious slump, 4/22 over the past four games, including a 0/7 clunker in the last game of the Western Conference Finals.
Impressive write up! Can’t wait to see how game two (& the rest of the series) unfolds.
Glass half full here (& fingers crossed) - Go Warriors!