Join me on a brief journey back in time, to the winter of 2009 when our star-crossed cricket team found itself facing off against the reigning champions of a suburban Chicago tape ball league. The opposing team had an impossibly quick bowler; we had never seen that kind of pace in person, the ball barely visible. As I saw him knock over our opening batters’ stumps in quick succession, I formulated a plan. He was pitching the ball full every ball, honing in on the base of the stumps. Get a good step forward before he releases the ball, cover your stumps and just put the bat out in front of your body, at least you’ll survive and can take runs off the others. The logic was sound and I promise that the ball was indeed full, I was well forward with the bat in front of me before the bowler had leaped, and I had my stumps well covered. One ball and I was headed back to the bench, my stumps in disarray.
My point being that it is one thing to have a plan and quite another to execute it at a pace that tests you beyond anything you have experienced. Such is the Golden State Warriors experience on offense. Steve Kerr’s five man whirling dervish can reduce even the best prepared defenses to the Confused Nick Young Meme.
If there’s one team that has the tools to land a stick in the Warriors’ spokes, it’s these Boston Celtics. Having the tools is one thing, using them perfectly on possession after possession through a playoff series is another. Even though the Draymond Green-Steph Curry-Klay Thompson triumvirate has seen its fortunes ebb and flow in the regular season, there’s a reason why they have been dominant in the playoffs. Playing mistake-free basketball is a daunting proposition over a best-of-seven series.
This isn’t a comprehensive finals preview. Instead, here are three questions that I will be asking in the NBA Finals, answers to which I think will have a meaningful bearing on the outcomes of the games. My pre-series pick is the Warriors in 6, but I feel queasy about it. I think it is more likely that we see the Celtics triumph in 6 or 7 than we see the Warriors win in 4 or 5.
Can Klay Thompson Be a Mid-Range Assassin?
Boston follows the Utah-Milwaukee defensive principle of walling off the rim and forcing the opponent to shoot a ton of mid-range attempts. Since Boston’s turnaround in the new year, no team forced a larger percentage of opponent shots from the mid-range (i.e. non-rim 2 pointers) and specifically, long mid-range shots (2 pointers outside of 14 feet) per Cleaning the Glass. That trend has carried over to the playoffs, with Boston forcing an even higher proportion of those shots.
While the Warriors won’t want to rely on those shots to win, they will need to take and make them. Golden State has made a very solid 47% of its long mid-range shots through the playoffs, but expect that number to dip in the face of Boston’s tenacious wing and guard defenders.
Klay Thompson could be a bellwether here. Despite some off nights, he is sinking those long mid-range looks at a career-high 53% clip. Opponents still treat Klay on the perimeter as a five alarm fire and run him off the arc. He has shown a willingness to take a couple of dribbles in and hoist for a long two-pointer. Counterintuitive as it may be, the Warriors might want Klay taking those shots in rhythm early in the shot clock, rather than searching for a better shot and allowing Boston’s imposing half-court defense to get set.
Klay is making 59% of his twos after 2 dribbles and 55% of 2 pointers that come after he touches the ball for 2-6 seconds per NBA Advanced Stats. Keep up that pace and the Warriors might be happy with Klay taking what the defense gives him, even if it’s superficially less efficient.
Can the Warriors Manufacture “Transition” Shots?
Both the Warriors and the Celtics can be turnover-prone. One would think there is more room for the Celtics to cut down on turnovers than for the Warriors. With Golden State, the turnovers are partly a function of their offensive system; the bet they make is that the good far outweighs the bad. Boston’s decision-making was shaky at times during the Miami series. With both teams possessing robust half-court defenses, turnovers are especially valuable for the other team in enabling them to get out in transition.
Getting out in transition may hold more relative benefit for the Warriors than for the Celtics. Here’s Mo Dakhil in his crisp series preview:
The Warriors want this to be a track meet, with the ball flying up and down the court. The faster they play the fewer possessions they will have to go up against Boston’s set defense.
Conversely, the Celtics want this to be a half court game. They went seven games against the Milwaukee Bucks; what hurt the Celtics most in that series was the transition game. In their three losses, they gave up an average of 18.7 points in transition versus 12.8 in their wins.
While Steve Kerr’s squad will happily take transition opportunities off of Boston’s turnovers, placing too much hope in that approach may be a risky proposition. Not all transition is generated off of live ball turnovers. Per PBP Stats, the Warriors have the highest effective field goal percentage (i.e. most efficient shot-making) off of opponent made field goals these playoffs. That is partly just restating that they have had one of the best offenses. More interestingly, only the Milwaukee Bucks have attempted more shots within the first ten seconds after an opponent made FG. The Celtics are giving up a measly 87 points per play in the half court these playoffs per Cleaning the Glass. It might behoove the Warriors to get out and run whenever they can; on steals, misses, made shots, you name it.
That might be easier said than done of course; Boston has the best defensive eFG% off of made baskets. They have the legs to keep up in a track race.
Can the Celtics Play Advantage Basketball?
As good as the Warriors’ defense is, it presents more weak spots than the Celtics do. Every defender in the Celtics’ top six (Tatum, Brown, Smart, Al Horford, Robert Williams III, Derrick White) is a plus defender, with some All Defense names in there. A talking point headed into this series is the extent to which the Warriors will be able to shield Jordan Poole and Stephen Curry on defense. I think Curry’s defensive reputation is an unfair legacy of the days when he presented the only spot to pick at (would you rather go at Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson, or Kevin Durant?), but Poole has been a sieve. Expect the Celtics to go at him and Steph.
How the Celtics go about attacking those defenders will be interesting. Boston’s offense has shown a tendency to get bogged down when it gets overly concerned with mismatch hunting. The Warriors will throw in off ball switches and hedges in a bid to keep their best defenders on the Celtics’ stars. Burn a ton of clock trying to manufacture the switch and you introduce another defender - the clock - that somewhat negates the advantage.
The Celtics have not produced their best offense out of isos, with a middling 0.94 points per possession in the playoffs. That accords with their 0.93 regular season mark.
That isn’t to say that the Celtics can’t use the defensive panic engendered by Poole or Curry getting switched onto Brown or Tatum. Rather, Boston may want to focus more on leveraging the advantage that creates elsewhere rather than resorting to iso ball. The Warriors are a smart team that banks on players rotating on time, but sometimes you have to give something up. That’s where the Celtics need to seek an advantage. In other words, more of this:
And less of this:
In that first clip, Brown has Steph on the mismatch, but finds Marcus Smart for the three as soon as Smart’s man, Thompson, shades in towards Brown. In the second, Brown develops tunnel vision once he gets Tyler Herro on him, jacking up a long two with 13 left on the shot clock. Wait a second longer and the pass might be there to Payton Pritchard in the corner, with Jimmy Butler focused on helping Herro.
I chose Brown for those clips intentionally; he is averaging a solid 1.05 points per possession on isos these playoffs. How Brown (and Tatum) manage the balance between hero ball and advantage ball will matter.
A grab bag of other things I’ll be keeping an eye on:
How are off-ball defenders refereed? Will the Celtics guards be allowed to maul Steph off ball (hello Matthew Dellavedova!), or will it be a tight whistle? This cuts both ways; how handsy is GP2 allowed to be navigating around screens?
Will the Warriors defense treat Grant Williams and Derrick White the way they treated Frank Ntilikina and Josh Green? Williams and White, the latter in particular, have been questionable shooters, but they are far more threatening than Ntilikina and Green. How honest can they keep the Warriors defenders selling out on them.
Who does Robert Williams III guard (if he plays)? I can see arguments for both Kevon Looney and Andrew Wiggins, assuming Tatum gets the Draymond assignment.
Do the Warriors commit to keeping Draymond as the backline quarterback and live with whatever mismatches that necessitates with off ball switching?
How many slip screens and ball-keeps-off-dribble-handoffs do we get from the Warriors if the Celtics’ base defense is to switch?
Does Al Horford’s hot streak from three continue? The Warriors didn’t need to worry about Steven Adams or Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber was streaky in the last round.