I remember watching my first test match live and coming away with two thoughts: Sachin Tendulkar really is better than the hype and GOSH, THIS LOOKS HARD AND SO MUCH HARDER THAN IT LOOKS ON TV! I get some variation of that second thought every time I watch the NBA too.
Screen and Roll defense: A play in three acts
Act One
Early in the Sixers-Kings game the other night, De'Aaron Fox scored on a scoop layup. Fox rejecting the screen jumbled help coverages a bit, so I don't think we can really fault either Seth Curry or the miles-away Tobias Harris too much. Joel Embiid's position is interesting on that play - I think he is woefully out of position to stop Fox's layup because he is hedging on Richaun Holmes' sweet-sweet push shot (sorry, I can't get enough of it.) I think this is a great example of how the efficacy of that shot really makes the Fox/Holmes PnR harder to guard. The Kings score 1.34 ppp when Holmes is the roll man and I would bet that number is higher in the subset of plays where Fox is the ball handler. Anyway, Embiid is a DPOY candidate and tradeoffs are hard, especially when they are being made at the speed of Fox!
Act Two
On to the third quarter and Fox comes off a great screen from Marvin Bagley III. I don't know if it's muscle memory from modifications made after getting burned on a couple of PnRs early (I don't have the clip, but there was an early play where Embiid raised his hand to acknowledge that he should have been deeper to cut off the drive and given up the short roll), or Embiid just being wired to be a killer interior presence. Either way, Embiid shows great footwork and is in prime position to make a Fox layup difficult while also being in position to contest on the short roll. One problem though: the screener is Bagley (38% from 3 this year) and not Holmes (20% on negligible attempts). You play your coverage based on the personnel, but again, that kind of real-time processing is so, so hard.
My favorite part of this play though is Harrison Barnes' cut and the timing of it. Danny Green is actually in great help position on Fox coming off the Bagley screen, but gets pulled away by the Barnes cut. The cut also distracts Embiid enough to make a hard closeout on Bagley a non-option for him. Although the Sixers' base coverage isn't usually to switch, that cut forecloses on any possibility of Simmons taking or even closing out on Bagley. In general, just beautiful timing all around on this play, from Barnes cutting to Haliburton lifting, to Fox's pass to Bagley. I love a team being so in sync (basically every Jazz offensive play these days too.)
Act Three
The Sixers play near-perfect defense and still get scored on. Furkan Korkmaz shows help at the nail early and forces Fox to pick up his dribble, Dwight Howard splits the difference between Fox and Holmes beautifully, and Shake Milton is in to tag Holmes off the weak side. Maybe Matisse Thybulle should be going under Holmes' screen, but with his length, you can't fault him for gambling on the efficacy of a rearview contest. Fox just makes a really, really tough shot and you tip your hat to him. Man, is this league hard!
(Side note: The scorers gave Holmes an assist on this. Home cookin'!)
Since we started off with Fox’s scoop layup and apropos of a request from Jayadev, everyone needs to watch this newsletter’s spirit commercial.
On deck
The no-duh game that I’m intrigued by is Utah-Milwaukee this Friday. It’s pretty well documented that Bud’s Bucks have happily let teams fire away from 3, ranking third from bottom last season and dead last the season before. They are giving up a similar percentage of opponent shots from 3 this season, although thanks to some other teams (45% of opponent shots against New Orleans come from behind the arc?!), they rank “only” fifth from bottom.
The Jazz lead the league in percentage of shots that come from 3. And they are tied with the Bucks in second place for accuracy, but the median rotation Jazz player is a better 3 point shooter than the median Bucks player.
On paper, this could be just the sort of defensive matchup that Bucks fans should sweat. However, Coach Bud has shown a willingness this season to bend his deep drop principles in favor of switching some more. That experimentation may have seen the Bucks drop in defensive rating, but it might be worth it come playoff time. The Jazz game seems like a great candidate for the Bucks defense to go into tinker mode again and dare Rudy Gobert to exploit smaller mismatches.