Don’t look now, but Golden State may be turning it around. While the Warriors’ chances of landing a top six seed appear small, there is reason for optimism in what has been a star-crossed season thus far.
Since Draymond Green’s return to play on January 15th, the Warriors have cobbled together a top three defense. Most importantly (and perhaps critical to the medium-term success of this roster), they have found workable lineups that include both of their best wing defenders, Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga. The key has been to place Draymond at the 5; over 379 possessions, that three man unit is outscoring opponents by 26 points per 100 possessions according to Cleaning the Glass. That’s right up there with the very best lineups in the league.
All of those Draymond-Kuminga-Wiggins lineups include Steph Curry and nearly all include either Klay Thompson or Brandin Podziemski as the fifth player. The lineups with Steph and Podziemski has been especially lethal, keeping opponents to 98 points per 100 while scoring an ungodly 142 points per 100 across 160 possessions. The sample size is small, but growing.
One play you will see Coach Kerr bust out often with those lineups is a Kuminga-Steph inverted pick and roll.
Why inverted? Because the roles are reversed, with the traditional ball handler (Steph) serving as screen setter while the traditional screener/roll man/pop man (Kuminga) acts as the ball handler. These actions can be lethal when the screener is shooter who commands respect and the ball handler is athletic, speedy, and can power to the rim with force. Steph is a canny screener, versed in both the dark arts of holding and nudging defenders off of their flight paths, and the subtle nuances of flipping angles and direction. The result is often what looks like a red carpet to the rim for Kuminga.
Against switching defenses, Steph will often ghost the screen (i.e. act like he is about to set it, before veering away), forcing indecision in defensive personnel as to whether a switch is called for. And a moment’s hesitation is all that a player of Kuminga’s athleticism needs to force open an open driving lane.
None of this works without Kuminga’s unteachable athleticism. This is why the Warriors and Kuminga fans have kept the faith for so long. His ability to power to the rim is an element that even the best Warriors teams have lacked. In two of the clips above, against Brooklyn and Philadelphia, help arrives at the rim in time. That does little to deter Kuminga. Once he has a step on his man and is on his way, there isn’t much that teams can do short of fouling or letting him past.
Since Draymond’s return from his second suspension, Kuminga is taking half his shots at the rim and making 84% of them per Cleaning the Glass. Just read that again: 84%.
Golden State sits five games out of the 6 seed with 32 games left. Beating out all of New Orleans, a retooled Dallas, and Sacramento may be too much to ask. But behind Kuminga, the ever-transcendent Steph Curry, and Draymond Green, they might be the play-in team that no one wants to face.
Good to see your stuff back!