Two questions I recently received: (1) Why is Milwaukee-Brooklyn the only second round series I have covered, and (2) Why have I largely focused on the Bucks instead of the Nets? On 2, it’s mostly a function of perspective: though I grew up a Nets fan, my expectation coming into this series (even pre-Harden injury) was that Milwaukee had the players and tools to take the series in 6. Since Game 1, it has also felt like Milwaukee has more margins to improve on, leading to a discussion of what those margins are. On 1, the answer is shorter: with limited bandwidth, I have not been able to watch much of the other series.
While much of the discussion after games 1 and 2 of the Milwaukee-Brooklyn series centered around Milwaukee’s struggling offense, this space devoted a fair bit of space to their defensive struggles. So it seems only fitting that with the Bucks’ defense taking center stage after Game 4, we take a look at their offense.
Take a look at the two pictures below, both showing a Khris Middleton-Giannis Antetokounmpo middle pick and roll, with Middleton at the top of his dribble. In both cases, the Bucks have a similar alignment: one man in the dunker’s spot (Brook Lopez in the first picture, Pat Connaughton in the second) and shooters spacing in the corners. I have highlighted the weakside shooters, Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker, in both cases.
Most importantly, note that the weakside low man has pulled way in on both plays; Kyrie Irving has abandoned Holiday in the first picture and Joe Harris is firmly planted in the paint, miles away from Tucker, in the second.
Here’s how the plays unfolded:
It isn’t a coincidence that the first play transpired in Game 3 when Milwaukee’s offense was still stuck in mud, while the second clip is from Game 4. Milwaukee showed more intent in moving the ball and involving the rest of the offense outside of Middleton and Giannis, in Game 4.
Passes are not a perfect proxy for how much an offense hums, but it might mean something that the Bucks made 245 passes in Game 4 per NBA advanced stats, up from 196 in Game 3 and 214 in Game 2. More than the number of passes though, it was about whom the passes were finding. P.J. Tucker received 17 front court touches in Game 4, up from 11 in Game 3 and 10 in Game 2. Brook Lopez’s front court touches have also trended up through the series.
Nearly half of Milwaukee’s shots came from beyond the arc in Game 4, a third of them from the corner per Cleaning the Glass, a marked turnaround from the previous three games. It’s interesting to note that Milwaukee jumpstarted their offense in the Miami series by upping their corner 3 frequency as well.
To be clear, the Bucks jacking from the corners may be as much symptom as cause here; better offense allowed them to generate those shots as much as the other way around. As a marker of success, their ability to create those looks is worth tracking. The Bucks were clearly intentional about these shots. With the Nets packing the paint to take away the rim, the Bucks would look to the corners for the next most efficient shot, whether out of set plays, isolations, or second chance opportunities.
Worryingly for Brooklyn, it wasn’t that Milwaukee had an outlier shooting night; the Bucks shot 39% from the corners, a hair below league average and below their own regular season mark. Man the weakside corners more diligently and the Nets risk unlocking Giannis’ roll game.
We shouldn’t oversell things here: The Bucks still only mustered a ho hum 106.3 offensive rating in Game 4, so they aren’t winning a shootout just yet. However, with the Nets only putting up a 90.5 offensive rating themselves and with both Kyrie Irving and James Harden ruled out for Game 5 (and likely more), Milwaukee may have found just enough offensive juice to swing the series.
I’ll just end by hoping for a speedy recovery for Irving, Harden, Donte DiVincenzo, and everyone else injured right now.