The Brooklyn Nets sported a historically good offense last season (over 119 points per 100 possessions) and were expected to do the same this season, even without Kyrie Irving. If the Nets can put together even a passable defense, it isn’t unreasonable to peg them as a serious championship contender.
Four games into the season, the Nets have mustered a defensive rating of 108.8, a tick below league average per Cleaning the Glass. So far so passable.1 One early area of concern is the Nets’ transition defense. Opponents are adding 6 points per 100 in transition against the Nets, bottom five in the league (where the Nets are jostling with lottery-locks Houston, Detroit, and Orlando). In particular, opponents are feasting off of Nets turnovers.
The Nets are actually taking reasonably good care of the ball, with the fourth lowest turnover percentage in the league. However, when opponents do snare a steal, they are typically off to the races. Some of this is a function of the Nets’ personnel; watch 23-year old Jalen McDaniels leave 36-year old Paul Millsap in his rearview mirror here.
80% of Nets live ball turnovers are leading to opponent transition plays, near bottom of the league. Per PBP Stats, the Nets have given up the third most points on opponent steals, even though 18 other teams have given up more such transition possessions. Some of that is bad luck with hot opponent three point shooting, which will eventually regress.
It isn’t all bad luck though. Again from PBP Stats, on fourteen shot attempts, opponents are shooting 86% on two-pointers off of steals. That number was 67% for the worst team in the league last season. Opponents are running into a layup line whenever they force a live ball turnover.
That Nic Claxton figures prominently in both of the previous clips isn’t a coincidence. He looks like he is still getting his conditioning up in what has been a tough start to his season. Claxton has often been slow to get back and opponents are adding 12 points per 100 in transition over 163 possessions with Claxton on the floor per CTG, right in the 0th percentile league-wide. The Nets need one of their younger players to bring the energy.
The glass half-full perspective for the Nets: It is early in the season, much of this can be fixed by just hustling back more diligently, and the Nets have a strong starting point if they minimize turnovers.
The glass half-empty perspective: Players like Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, and LaMarcus Aldridge aren’t getting any younger and could be vulnerable against teams looking to push. Opponents won’t pass on low hanging fruit.
The offense, however, has barely mustered 107 points per 100. There is too much firepower on this Nets roster for that number not to trend up.