Switching things up this week with the weekly re-watch post coming on the weekend. All stats below were current as of Monday morning, 03/15/2021.
After playing a critical role in the Denver Nuggets’ run to the bubble Western Conference Finals, Jerami Grant moved to the Detroit Pistons this past offseason for what promised to be an expanded offensive role. Grant’s story and broader motivation for the switch are inspiring. So far, he has vindicated Detroit’s investment in his future and is arguably a front-runner for the Most Improved Player award.
Grant’s usage rate has climbed to 25.8% this season, on par with ballhandling forwards like Khris Middleton and Demar DeRozan and in the 91st percentile for forwards per Cleaning the Glass. That’s a 60% increase from last season, placing him at the top of the league in increase in usage, about double the increase in Pascal Siakam’s usage between Toronto’s 2018-19 championship season and the first post-Kawhi season (although Siakam started at a higher baseline.)
Most notably, this increase in usage has not been accompanied by an especially large decrease in efficiency. Grant’s shooting numbers from 3 have decreased, likely explained by the greater number of less-efficient pull up 3s he is taking in his expanded role and the more cramped spacing on offer in Detroit compared to Denver. He is attempting more mid-range shots, but shooting a tick better on those per Cleaning the Glass. Grant is iso-ing more and scoring more efficiently on those isolations compared to last season.
Worth noting is that even as his usage has ballooned, Grant remains careful with the ball: he continues to turn the ball over on under 9% of his possessions, up in the 90th percentile of the league. The low turnover numbers aren’t just a case of Grant playing it safe too often. He increasingly displays patience in taking the measure of a situation. Watch him come off the dribble hand off from Mason Plumlee and size up what the defense is giving him:
Seeing Julius Randle going under, Grant takes the time to dribble into his shooting pocket before rising up for the mid-range jumper. This patience is a welcome change-up for a player who often crashes right into the teeth of the defense. Grant has also flashed a subtle hesitation dribble.
That ever-so-slight hesitation gets Obi Toppin (Knicks 1) to relax, allowing Grant to get to the basket with two quick strides. More of this please!
A career-high 34% of Grant’s buckets are unassisted this season per Cleaning the Glass; expect that number to rise as he grows in his role. Last season in Denver, nearly 60% of Grant’s shots came off 0 dribbles, with 14% coming after 3 dribbles or more. So far this season, that latter number has jumped to nearly 30% (Grant shoots a robust 50% on shots attempted after 3-6 dribbles), with a surprising uptick in eFG% on those attempts as well. Grant is putting the ball on the floor more and the early returns are encouraging. He isn’t afraid to back up, rev his engine, and then take his man all the way to the cup.
Baskets like these aside, Dwane Casey and the Pistons coaching staff deserve credit for putting Grant in positions to succeed. They run a number of simple sets to get Grant his looks within the flow of the offense.
Single or double pin downs are used to get Grant curling towards the basket with a head of steam.
Grant is a willing screener, which is used in turn to get him open 3 point looks. Here, he is the first screener in what looks to be a double pin down for Wayne Ellington:
With the defense top locking Ellington there and Marvin Bagley III (Kings 35) looking completely lost, Grant is able to pop out and use the Mason Plumlee (Pistons 24) screen to get a good look at 3.
A personal favorite starts off with what looks like floppy action for Wayne Ellington under the basket, but instead turns into double flare screens from Ellington and Plumlee for Grant popping out to the corner:
Grant and Plumlee bottled and brought over some of their chemistry from Denver. Grant is also establishing better chemistry with his newer co-stars in Detroit. Isaiah Stewart has been one of my favorite rookies to watch this season because of his willingness to do all the little things. Here, he and Grant run a solid facsimile of the Draymond Green-Steph Curry pitch back routine as soon as Stewart sees his man playing off of him.
There’s that patience again from Grant in not rushing the shot when given the time. Another thing to keep an eye on will be the burgeoning pick and roll between Dennis Smith Jr. and Grant, whether it’s Grant slipping and popping out for 3…
… or popping and attacking a scrambling defender off the dribble.
There are still some areas where one would want to see growth in Grant’s offensive game. His finishing needs to improve; even as he draws fouls on a healthy 14% of his shot attempts (93rd percentile amongst forwards per CTG), he only finishes through for the basket-and-one on 14% of those shots. By way of comparison, that latter number is 24% for Pascal Siakam. Grant is making 89% of his free throws on the season, so this has the potential to be found money.
While he has made strides as a scorer, Grant has a middling assist-to-usage ratio per CTG and on occasion, can develop tunnel vision barreling into the paint.
You want Grant harnessing some of that patience to freeze for a beat and find Saddiq Bey cutting to the corner there.
As Grant harnesses his greater responsibilities, he will need to leverage his threat on the drive to take opportunities on the weakside. His teammates are starting to present them already.
There’s Saddiq Bey again, open on the wing.
I’m optimistic that that growth will come; it’s early days yet in Grant’s enhanced capacity. There is reason for being bullish on the Pistons in general; their point differential suggests that this team is better than their league-worst 9 wins would indicate. The Bey-Stewart-Saben Lee rookie triumvirate has looked very solid and we all await Killian Hayes’ return from injury. And I’m excited to see what comes next in Jerami Grant’s leap.