Perhaps it’s corona time, but it doesn’t feel like that long ago that Fred VanVleet was most known for executing Nick Nurse’s box-and-one on Stephen Curry in the 2019 NBA finals. More recently, VanVleet signed a 4-year, $85 million deal with the Toronto Raptors and scored a franchise-record 54 points against the Orlando Magic earlier this season.
In the humble opinion of From The Logo, VanVleet perhaps had the strongest case for making the All Star team amongst the players that were left off this year. VanVleet grades out well on most single-number advanced metrics such as ESPN’s RPM, or FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR. It feels appropriate that VanVleet is increasingly touted as the natural person to take over Kyle Lowry’s mantle in Toronto. Like Lowry, much of VanVleet’s value (the aforementioned scoring explosion notwithstanding) escapes traditional box score stats. More importantly for the purposes of the discussion here, an appreciation of VanVleet’s game doesn’t require understanding the ins and outs of a ridge regression; watch VanVleet play and his value becomes apparent.
In particular, VanVleet is putting together a strong case for making one of the NBA’s All Defensive Teams this year. Depending on the day, VanVleet leads the league or is top three, in deflections and steals per game. Very few guards are as good at denying a pass or handoff; woe to the player doomed to be face guarded by VanVleet on any given night. Even as he does so, VanVleet’s head is always on a swivel, alert to opportunities to lead the break off a live ball turnover.
6 feet on a good day, with a 6’2” wingspan, VanVleet doesn’t pose the long-armed threat of a Mikal Bridges or a Dejounte Murray. He possesses incredible hands and timing though. Just when a bigger player is going up for what appears to be a clear shot, VanVleet swipes down to get a clean strip.
Both clips above have been slowed down considerably, such is the speed with which VanVleet can take balls away. At 2.4 fouls per game, this isn’t a case of VanVleet getting slap happy either; VanVleet picks his spots with veteran savvy.
VanVleet can materialize out of nowhere, simultaneously putting out a five alarm fire on one end and triggering another one for the opposition going the other way.
In large part thanks to VanVleet, the Raptors force the second most turnovers in the league per Cleaning the Glass. From there, the Raptors are usually off to the races. Again per Cleaning the Glass, the Raptors add nearly 2 points more per 100 possessions on transition plays off steals when VanVleet is on the floor, good for 92nd percentile in the league (no team in the league adds more points through transition play than the Raptors.)
The Raptors’ transition defense is also better across the board when VanVleet is on the court per CTG. He is indefatigable getting back, a coach’s dream in so far as he rarely gives up on a play. Watch him somehow get around and in front of the streaking Jordan McLaughlin, while putting in a solid contest to force the miss:
Amongst players under 6’4”, only Lu Dort contests more shots per game than VanVleet per NBA advanced stats. He is third amongst guards in shots blocked per game; ahead of VanVleet on that list are 6’5” Matisse Thybulle and 6’8” Josh Jackson, players who might more accurately be called wings or forwards.
Another thing coaches likely love about VanVleet is his commitment to boxing out on the defensive glass. With a reasonable minimum for games played, VanVleet leads all guards in box outs per game per NBA advanced stats. Take the minimum games qualification away and only Marcus Smart is in VanVleet’s league. Most guards with similar numbers measure out to 6’7” or 6’8”; other than Lowry, there is really no one of VanVleet’s height who boxes out as frequently, or as effectively.
That play doesn’t count for much in the grand accounting, but showcases VanVleet’s IQ and constant court awareness. Watch VanVleet first pick up the taller Jarred Vanderbilt (number 8) under the basket and then noticing Malik Beasley (number 5) running in from the corner, pivot to boxing him out and handing Vanderbilt over to his teammate.
Oh, and VanVleet does all this while leading the league in distance traveled and averaging the most minutes per game after James Harden. That’s most minutes across all players and positions in the whole dern league! VanVleet truly is the energizer bunny, constantly in motion, making the right rotation time and time again. Here, he first rotates to cut off Jeremy Lamb’s (number 26) drive, is immediately off to X out on the helper’s man, hits the brakes on his closeout to slide his feet with the driver and ultimately forces a deflection.
VanVleet’s timing, athleticism, and body control are all on display in this play. He is aware of where the next fire might be even before he has put out the first one.
It makes sense that VanVleet was the one who successfully executed the “-and-one” part of the Raptors’ defensive scheme on Steph Curry in the 2019 Finals. Curry famously does not stop moving on offense and it requires a defender with similar reserves of stamina and grit to keep up with him. Doing so night-in and night-out is no mean feat.
There’s a lot more that can be said (and probably will be in this space) about VanVleet’s defense; his doggedness in fighting over screens and surprisingly sturdy post defense when caught in a mismatch to name just two. And all of this is before we even get to discussing his contributions on offense.
It has always felt like Kyle Lowry was belatedly recognized as the NBA star that he is. One can only hope that such won’t be VanVleet’s fate.
Then again, somebody has to take over from Mike Conley as “best player to never make an All Star team”, so don’t be surprised if in a few years, VanVleet is in the running for that dubious distinction.
On deck
The league schedule resumes with a light slate this evening, but don’t sleep on the Spurs-Mavericks matchup. With health finally back, the 18-16 Mavs are surging and have sported a top five defense in their last six games. They took advantage of a stretch that included bottom five offenses in Orlando and OKC, along with a Nets team missing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Meanwhile, the decidedly fun 18-14 Spurs have been pegged by some as a regression candidate for the second half of the season. The main source of worry on this front might be their daunting remaining schedule (Dallas has one of the easier schedules, more cause for Mavs optimism.) Per Cleaning the Glass, the Spurs sport two of the ten lineups with the fattest net differential league-wide, inclding a Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Devin Vassell, Rudy Gay, and Jake Puddle unit that is +32 in 175 possessions.
Leading candidates for the next weekly rewatch are this rust-buster, or Sixers-Spurs on Sunday.
Awesome read! FVV has become the poster child for winning plays that don’t make the box score...but is also posting impressive offensive numbers. Definitely didn’t expect this production from him, and now I’m not even sure what his ceiling is beyond this.