For interested readers, I also had post-game musings after Game 1, Game 2, and Game3 of the Western Conference Finals. And you bet I’m going to insert a Kenny Loggins reference in a post about zone defenses the week Top Gun: Maverick comes out. DANGER ZONE!
After going a combined 0/10 on threes in Game 3, Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber shot 8/13 in Game 4. Dallas as a team went 20/43 on threes after a 13/45 outing in Game 5. Some of that is pure randomness in shooting variance. As fans of the sport, we don’t acknowledge the importance of plain ol’ luck enough.
Knowing how much of a game’s outcome to attribute to luck versus strategy and execution is tricky. Oftentimes, good basketball can cement the gains of luck while bad basketball can fritter it away. So let’s give the Dallas Mavericks some respect for adjusting to the Warriors’ zone defense and ensuring that revitalized shooting would give them their first win of the series.
The Warriors’ 3-2 zone, with three men at the top of the arc and two on the back line, has given Dallas some conniptions this series.
Like most teams, the Warriors prefer to only fall back into a zone off of a dead ball to prevent breakdowns in transition. One might often see players or coaches signaling for the zone with both arms raised into fists; watch Moses Moody and Damion Lee at the top of the screen as they backpedal here:
There are various flavors of zone defense and equally many reasons for why teams deploy them. Used as a surprise, a zone can throw off the rhythm of an opponent’s offense; it is also often a tool used to cover up for defensively challenged personnel. Golden State may deploy it when both Steph Curry and Jordan Poole are on the floor together for instance. The Warriors have been missing Gary Payton 2 and Andre Iguodala, two excellent defenders, for the entirety of the series so far and just lost Otto Porter, another plus defender. All three are rotation players as well; their places have been taken by less capable defensive personnel. The zone is equal parts crutch and weapon for Steve Kerr’s team right now.
Dallas had done its homework and came to Game 4 prepared with a simple counter to the 3-2 zone. With two shooters spacing on the strong side and the fifth player in the weak side corner, a player comes and sets a pick for the ball handler driving towards the strong side before rolling towards the paint. That leaves the strong side wing defender (Moses Moody in the first clip, Steph Curry in the second clip below) caught between guarding the wing shooter and the ball handler:
Simple, yet effective, placing an open shooter just one pass away (or running the risk of Luke Doncic getting a window to drive into the lane).
One of the best things about watching the playoffs is seeing teams respond to the other team’s strategy as the series goes on (which in turn prompts more adjustments and so on). The Warriors were quick to suss out a counter to the Mavericks’ zone busting: When Dallas ran the high screen against the 3-2 zone, Golden State had the weak side low man (Damion Lee in the first clip above, Draymond Green in the second) pull all the way over to the strong side, freeing up the strong side low man to slide up towards the wing. Here is what it looks like when executed well, with Jonathan Kuminga running over from the weak side and Nemanja Bjelica sliding up onto Spencer Dinwiddie:
The zone is best deployed as a change up; get predictable and it is easier for opponents to develop and execute counters. When Coach Kerr went to the Poole Party lineup in the third quarter to try and close the gap, Golden State first showed Dallas man coverage with Steph executing a high tag until Klay Thompson could peel back onto the ball handler:
The Warriors went back to the 3-2 zone on the very next possession with the counter to Dallas’ strategy ready to deploy. Unfortunately, even the best counters fall apart with poor execution. First, both Draymond and Steph signal Klay Thompson (remember, the weak side low man in the zone) to come across the lane on this next possession. Jordan Poole, the weak side wing defender, should be splitting the difference between the screener and the man in the weak side corner in the event of a skip pass (watch Moses Moody two clips above). Instead, Poole sinks into the lane in no man’s land, Draymond seems to wave Klay off, and in the ensuing confusion Luka Doncic gets a wide open wing 3.
Draymond seems frustrated at Klay there, likely because the Warriors’ counter called for Klay to come across and take Draymond’s man. However, it does look like the breakdown originally starts with Jordan Poole and Draymond sows the doubt in Klay’s mind when that happens.
A breakdown happening once is no guarantee of it happening again, especially not with a team like the Warriors. The Mavericks were ready though. This next counter-to-the-counter is my favorite: Dwight Powell goes up to set the high screen getting Doncic going to the strong side, but flips it at the last second to get Doncic going the other way. Steph is shaping to zone up between the wing and the corner, but Draymond spots the switch up before it happens (it’s been said before, but Draymond is a verifiable genius who just sees plays unfold before everyone else) and frantically gets Steph to close out on the wing. With the Warriors in scramble mode, the Mavericks calmly find the open man.
Another way to beat the zone: Get the ball to the middle of the floor, between those two lines of defenders. When the Warriors bench went on a run to keep things exciting in the fourth, Jason Kidd subbed in Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Luka to calm things down. Here, Spencer Dinwiddie drives off the pass without hesitation and a smart cut from Dorian Finney-Smith busts open the Warriors’ zone:
With the Warriors loading up towards the strong side of the floor, Luka does something similar here by cutting behind the defense and straight to the rim (warming the cockles of Reggie Miller’s heart, screaming on commentary for the Mavericks to cut to the middle):
And of course, there is the parsimonious solution: have your offensive supernova take the weakest defender in the zone off the dribble. Once Luka got tired of the Mavericks faffing around, he exploited the Warriors’ willingness to keep both Jordan Poole and Nemanja Bjelica on the floor.
One would still back the Warriors to come away with the series, if not for any other reason than that winning four straight game, two on the road, is incredibly hard even for these spunky Mavericks. The Game 4 experience might prove invaluable for the Warriors down the road. On the most recent episode of The Lowe Post, Zach Lowe mentioned that Boston has scored over 1.3 points per possessions against Miami’s zone. If the Celtics make the finals (as I expect them to), the Warriors may be grateful for the practice in figuring out how to adjust their zone.